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Property Crime Trends in Gloversville: A Decade of Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Gloversville, located in New York State, has experienced notable shifts in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly by 37.1%, from 636 to 400 incidents. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population change, with the city's population decreasing by 3.5% from 15,576 in 2010 to 15,029 in 2020.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial downward trend. In 2010, there were 116 burglaries, which decreased to 57 by 2020, representing a 50.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.45 in 2010 to 3.79 in 2020. Despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.29% in 2010, peaking at 0.39% in 2011, and settling at 0.26% in 2020. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the reduction was not as pronounced relative to state-wide trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decrease. The number of incidents dropped from 495 in 2010 to 330 in 2020, a 33.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 31.78 to 21.96 over the same period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.23% and 0.34% throughout the decade. This indicates that the city's larceny-theft trends generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately declined. From 25 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 13 in 2020, a 48% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.60 to 0.86. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.08% and 0.22%, ending at 0.09% in 2020. This suggests that motor vehicle theft in the city decreased more rapidly than the state average.
Arson cases in the city remained low but showed some fluctuation. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 4 incidents in 2017 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.06 to 0.27 over the decade. Notably, the city's contribution to state arson figures increased significantly, from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.74% in 2020, indicating that arson became a more prominent issue relative to state trends.
Analysis reveals a strong correlation between property crime trends and population density. As population density decreased from 3,086 per square mile in 2010 to 2,978 in 2020, property crimes also declined. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Burglaries are projected to decrease further, potentially reaching around 30-35 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 300-320 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft may fluctuate but is likely to remain below 15 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low but variable, potentially averaging 2-3 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Gloversville has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with improvements across all categories except arson. This trend, coupled with demographic changes, suggests a evolving urban landscape with potentially improving safety conditions. However, the city's increasing share of state arson cases warrants attention. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies, particularly for larceny-theft and addressing the arson uptick, will be crucial for continuing the positive trajectory in property crime reduction.
