Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Glenarden: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Glenarden, located in Maryland, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 106 incidents to 54, representing a 49.1% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population growth from 5,365 in 2010 to 6,399 in 2019, a 19.3% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 35 burglaries, which decreased to just 4 in 2019, marking an 88.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.52 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.63 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries also dropped significantly, from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2019. This substantial decrease suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft incidents have fluctuated but ultimately decreased over the decade. Starting at 56 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 95 in 2011 before declining to 42 in 2019, a 25% overall reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.44 in 2010 to 6.56 in 2019. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2019. This trend indicates a general improvement in property security, though not as dramatic as the burglary reduction.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown variability but an overall decrease. From 15 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 8 in 2019, a 46.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.80 in 2010 to 1.25 in 2019. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.24% to 0.16% over this period, suggesting that the reduction outpaced the state average. This improvement could be attributed to better vehicle security systems or increased vigilance among residents.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one year (2014) reporting any incidents. In that year, there were 2 arson cases, representing 0.57% of state arsons. The lack of consistent data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $76,419 in 2013 to $81,454 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 96 to 54. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, there's a positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing (increasing from 61% in 2013 to 63% in 2019) and the reduction in property crimes, indicating that higher home ownership rates might lead to more community investment and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data and current trends, total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 15-20% by 2029, reaching approximately 45-50 incidents annually. This prediction assumes continued economic growth and stability in the city.
In summary, Glenarden has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and motor vehicle theft. The correlation between rising incomes, increased home ownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic development and community stability play crucial roles in crime reduction. As the city continues to grow and prosper, maintaining these positive trends will be essential for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
