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Property Crime Trends in Glen Cove: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Glen Cove, located in New York, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 18.1%, from 227 to 186 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 5.3%, from 26,727 to 28,132 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 25 burglaries, which decreased to 13 in 2022, representing a 48% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 0.94 to 0.46 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.10% of the state total. This substantial decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to population growth, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also decreased over time but less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, there were 196 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 164 in 2022, a 16.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.33 to 5.83. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased slightly from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022. This trend indicates a moderate improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting incidents.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 6 reported cases, which increased to 9 in 2022, a 50% increase. However, due to population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased marginally from 0.22 to 0.32. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low but saw a slight increase from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022. This upward trend, while small in absolute numbers, may warrant attention from local law enforcement.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively rare. The data shows fluctuations between 0 and 6 cases per year, with no clear trend. The highest number of arsons (6) was reported in 2017, representing 1.01% of state arsons that year. In most years, arson cases were either non-existent or represented less than 0.5% of state totals. The rarity of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a meaningful trend or rate per population.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $88,040 in 2013 to $90,700 in 2021, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, suggesting that as the city became more densely populated (from 4,014 people per square mile in 2010 to 4,225 in 2022), property crime incidents saw a minor increase.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crime rates. Based on recent trends, burglaries are likely to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 10-15 cases annually. Larceny-theft may see a modest increase, potentially reaching 175-180 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts could continue their upward trend, possibly reaching 12-15 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain sporadic and low, likely not exceeding 2-3 cases in any given year.
In summary, Glen Cove has shown overall improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in reducing burglaries and larceny-thefts. However, the slight uptick in motor vehicle thefts and the correlation between population density and crime rates suggest ongoing challenges as the city continues to grow. The relationship between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates provides a positive indicator for the city's future safety and economic well-being.
