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Property Crime Trends in Girard, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Girard, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2018, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 18 incidents in 2010 to 14 in 2018, representing a 22.22% reduction. During this same timeframe, the population declined from 2,865 in 2010 to 2,368 in 2018, a 17.35% decrease, suggesting a complex relationship between population changes and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries, which dropped to 2 in 2012, then spiked to 12 in 2013, before decreasing again to 4 in 2018. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 2.79 in 2010 to 1.69 in 2018. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2013, before settling back to 0.01% in 2018. This volatility suggests localized factors influencing burglary rates rather than a consistent trend.
Larceny-theft incidents showed less dramatic changes but still varied over time. From 9 cases in 2010, it increased to 22 in 2013, then decreased to 9 again in 2018. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 3.14 in 2010 to 3.80 in 2018, indicating a slight increase in prevalence despite population decline. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable at 0.01% throughout most of the period, suggesting that local trends generally mirrored state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained low, with only 1 incident reported in 2010, 2 in 2013, and 1 again in 2018. The rate per 1,000 people stayed below 1 throughout the period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.01%, indicating minimal impact on statewide figures.
Arson data is limited, with only one reported incident in 2017, representing 0.08% of state arsons that year. This isolated incident doesn't provide enough information to establish a trend or make meaningful comparisons over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density decreased from 3,067 per square mile in 2010 to 2,535 in 2018, property crime incidents showed an overall downward trend, despite some fluctuations. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between the slight increase in median income (from $52,028 in 2013 to $54,055 in 2018) and the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that property crime rates in Girard may continue to decline slightly over the next five years (up to 2029). The forecast suggests a potential reduction to around 10-12 annual property crime incidents by 2029, assuming current demographic and economic trends persist.
In summary, Girard has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes from 2010 to 2018, despite significant year-to-year fluctuations. This trend, coupled with declining population and increasing median income, paints a picture of a changing urban landscape. The city's property crime rates appear to be influenced by local factors more than state-wide trends, as evidenced by its relatively stable contribution to state crime figures. Moving forward, continued monitoring of these trends will be crucial for understanding the evolving dynamics of property crime in Girard and implementing effective prevention strategies.
