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Property Crime Trends in Gibsonville: A Decade of Resilience Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Gibsonville, North Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 90 in 2010 to 85 in 2022, representing a 5.56% reduction. This decline in property crime occurred against a backdrop of significant population growth, with the town's population increasing from 6,446 in 2010 to 8,152 in 2022, a substantial 26.47% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show considerable variation over time. In 2010, there were 25 burglaries, which peaked at 93 in 2012 before declining to 24 in 2022, marking a 4% decrease from 2010 levels. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.88 in 2010 to 2.94 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents in the city showed a downward trend, decreasing from 59 in 2010 to 51 in 2022, a 13.56% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.15 in 2010 to 6.26 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this category relative to population growth. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, suggesting that the local trend closely mirrored state-wide improvements.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited an increase over the period, rising from 6 incidents in 2010 to 10 in 2022, a 66.67% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 0.93 in 2010 to 1.23 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.06% to 0.07%, indicating that this type of crime grew slightly faster locally than the state average.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic, with no reported incidents in several years including 2010 and 2022. The highest number of arson cases was 2, reported in 2013, 2015, and 2019. Due to the low and inconsistent numbers, meaningful trends or rates per 1,000 residents are difficult to establish. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.30% in 2015 but often registering at 0.00%.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $60,094 in 2013 to $68,560 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between home ownership rates and reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 67% in 2013 to 76% in 2022, coinciding with the general downward trend in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 20-25 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may continue its downward trend to approximately 40-45 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain relatively stable at 10-12 incidents annually. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and low, with 0-1 incidents in most years.
In summary, Gibsonville has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft has seen a slight increase. The correlation between rising median incomes, increased home ownership, and declining property crime rates suggests that economic stability and community investment may play a role in crime reduction. As the town continues to grow, maintaining focus on these socio-economic factors could be crucial in sustaining and improving upon the positive trends in property crime rates.
