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Property Crime Trends in Gerald, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Gerald, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 33 incidents in 2010 to 12 in 2022, representing a 63.6% decrease. This reduction occurred alongside fluctuating population trends, with the population decreasing from 2,918 in 2010 to 2,511 in 2022, a 13.9% decline.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries reported, which peaked at 12 in 2011 and 2012, before dropping to just 1 incident in 2022. This represents an 87.5% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusting for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.74 in 2010 to 0.40 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, with a peak of 0.05% in 2016. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a significant reduction. From 24 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 8 in 2022, a 66.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 8.22 in 2010 to 3.19 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft numbers remained relatively stable at 0.02% from 2010 to 2013, before decreasing to 0.01% by 2022. This trend indicates that the city has made progress in reducing larceny-theft incidents, possibly through improved security measures or community policing efforts.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately increased. From 1 incident in 2010, it rose to 3 in 2022, a 200% increase. However, when considering the population change, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.34 in 2010 to 1.19 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low but increased slightly from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, with a peak of 0.03% in 2011. This trend suggests that while other property crimes decreased, motor vehicle theft became a growing concern for the community.
Arson incidents remained consistently at zero throughout the reported years, indicating either an absence of such crimes or potential underreporting. This stability is positive for the community but warrants continued vigilance.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $39,887 in 2013 to $60,010 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 25 to 12 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Gerald could see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 8-10 incidents annually. Burglaries and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching 0-1 and 5-6 incidents respectively. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise slightly, possibly reaching 4-5 incidents annually.
In summary, Gerald has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. The inverse correlation between rising median incomes and declining crime rates suggests that economic improvements may have played a role in enhancing community safety. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts highlights an area requiring continued attention. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on economic development and targeted crime prevention strategies could help sustain and further improve these positive trends in property crime reduction.
