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Property Crime Trends in Georgiana, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations and Socioeconomic Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Georgiana, Alabama presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small town fluctuated significantly, peaking at 82 incidents in 2014 before declining to 33 in 2022, a 59.8% decrease. This crime trend occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the town's population decreasing by 6.5% from 3,418 in 2010 to 3,195 in 2022.
Burglary rates in Georgiana have shown considerable volatility. In 2014, burglaries reached a high of 28 incidents, equating to 8.74 burglaries per 1,000 residents. By 2022, this number had dropped dramatically to just 3 incidents, or 0.94 per 1,000 residents, marking an 89.3% decrease. Despite this significant reduction, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.11% of the state total over the years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also exhibited a downward trend. The peak occurred in 2014 with 47 incidents (14.67 per 1,000 residents), dropping to 29 incidents (9.08 per 1,000 residents) by 2022, a 38.3% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft rates varied between 0.02% and 0.06% during this period. This decline in larceny-theft, while less dramatic than burglary, still represents a significant improvement in the local crime landscape.
Motor vehicle theft in Georgiana has remained relatively low throughout the observed period. The highest number of incidents was recorded in 2014 with 7 thefts (2.19 per 1,000 residents), dropping to just 1 incident (0.31 per 1,000 residents) in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0% to 0.1%, indicating a minimal impact on statewide statistics.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with only two years (2011 and 2021) reporting zero incidents.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincides with a significant increase in median income, rising from $29,883 in 2013 to $56,417 in 2022, an 88.8% increase. This substantial income growth may have contributed to reduced economic motivations for property crimes. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 72% in 2013 to 79% in 2022, potentially fostering a greater sense of community investment and vigilance against property crimes.
The racial composition of the city also underwent changes during this period, with the white population increasing from 47% in 2013 to 57% in 2022, while the black population decreased from 52% to 41%.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's reasonable to forecast a continued decrease in property crimes over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crimes reduce further, potentially reaching around 20-25 incidents annually. Burglaries could potentially drop to 1-2 incidents per year, while larceny-theft might decrease to around 15-20 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain very low, possibly with years of zero incidents.
In conclusion, Georgiana has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in the face of population decline. The significant increase in median income and home ownership rates appear to be strongly correlated with this positive trend. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining and building upon these socioeconomic improvements may be key to sustaining the downward trajectory of property crimes in the coming years.
