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Property Crime Trends in Geneva, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuation and Recent Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Geneva, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 6,862 in 2022 and spanning 15.88 square miles, this small city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates. The total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 177 in 2021 to 84 in 2022, marking a 52.5% reduction. This sharp decline occurred against a backdrop of modest population growth, with the city's population increasing by 0.85% from 6,804 in 2021 to 6,862 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2021, there were 35 burglaries, which dropped dramatically to 10 in 2022, representing a 71.4% decrease. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 5.14 in 2021 to 1.46 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated significantly. In 2021, the city accounted for 0.41% of state burglaries, which dropped to 0.09% in 2022. This suggests that while local efforts may have been effective in reducing burglaries, the city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics has become less significant.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a substantial decrease, from 125 cases in 2021 to 69 in 2022, a 44.8% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 18.37 in 2021 to 10.06 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases dropped from 0.36% in 2021 to 0.15% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced state-wide trends. This improvement suggests effective local strategies in combating theft-related crimes.
Motor vehicle theft in the city demonstrated a similar downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 17 in 2021 to 5 in 2022, a substantial 70.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.50 in 2021 to 0.73 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics also decreased, from 0.29% in 2021 to 0.07% in 2022. This significant improvement indicates successful local efforts in reducing vehicle-related crimes.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare. In 2021, there were 2 reported cases, accounting for 1.52% of state arson incidents. However, in 2022, no arson cases were reported, bringing the city's contribution to state arson statistics down to 0%. While this is a positive development, the low numbers make it difficult to establish a definitive trend.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $50,962 in 2021 to $46,070 in 2022, while property crimes decreased. This suggests that the relationship between income and crime rates may not be straightforward in this context. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained stable at 69% from 2021 to 2022, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes. This stability in homeownership might contribute to community cohesion and crime reduction.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease in overall property crime rates if current trends persist. Burglary rates are predicted to stabilize at around 1-2 incidents per 1,000 residents. Larceny-theft is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching 8-9 incidents per 1,000 residents by 2029. Motor vehicle theft rates are projected to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 0.5 to 1 incident per 1,000 residents.
In summary, Geneva has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime statistics from 2021 to 2022. The significant reductions in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft, coupled with the absence of arson cases, paint a picture of a community effectively addressing crime issues. These trends, when considered alongside stable homeownership rates and changing income levels, suggest a complex interplay of factors contributing to the city's improved safety profile. As Geneva looks to the future, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the continued well-being and security of its residents.
