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Property Crime Trends in Gastonia: A Decade of Change and Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Gastonia, North Carolina, a city with a rich history dating back to its founding in 1877, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Gastonia decreased by 26%, from 4,363 to 3,227. During this same period, the city's population grew by 14.7%, from 72,061 to 82,666 residents, highlighting a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2011, there were 951 burglaries reported, which decreased to 474 in 2022, representing a 50.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 13.2 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 5.7 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 1.78% in 2011, peaking at 2.7% in 2018, and settling at 1.94% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased significantly within the city, its contribution to state totals has remained relatively stable, indicating a potentially broader statewide reduction in burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 3,198 in 2011 to 2,411 in 2022, a 24.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 44.4 in 2011 to 29.2 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft cases decreased slightly from 2.33% in 2011 to 2.02% in 2022, suggesting that the city's improvements in this category were somewhat in line with statewide trends.
Contrary to the declining trends in burglary and larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft in the city showed an increase. The number of incidents rose from 214 in 2011 to 342 in 2022, a 59.8% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.0 in 2011 to 4.1 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 2.2% in 2011 to 2.35% in 2022, indicating that this trend may be more pronounced in the city compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. The number of incidents rose from 18 in 2011 to 22 in 2022, a 22.2% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.25 in 2011 to 0.27 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state arson cases increased significantly from 1.97% in 2011 to 2.5% in 2022, suggesting that arson has become a more prominent issue in the city relative to the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 1,386 per square mile in 2011 to 1,590 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. There appears to be a positive correlation between rising median income (from $40,374 in 2013 to $58,745 in 2022) and decreasing property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft categories.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, albeit at a slower rate. Motor vehicle theft may continue to rise but is likely to plateau. Arson cases are projected to remain relatively stable or show a slight increase.
In summary, Gastonia has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite population growth. The city's efforts in crime prevention and community policing appear to be yielding positive results. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state arson cases highlight areas that may require targeted interventions. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on these trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of its residents.
