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Property Crime Trends in Galena, Illinois: Historic City Faces Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Galena, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 54 in 2011 to 119 in 2019, representing a 120.4% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 4,500 in 2011 to 4,185.5 in 2020, a 7% decline.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. In 2011, there were 6 burglaries, which remained constant in 2012, but dropped to 2 in 2013. The rate peaked at 12 incidents in 2018 before decreasing to 4 in 2020. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.33 in 2011 to 2.87 in 2018, then decreased to 0.96 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, ranging from 0% to 0.04% over the decade, indicating a relatively small contribution to overall state burglary figures.
Larceny-theft incidents showed more pronounced fluctuations. Starting at 48 cases in 2011, it dropped to 22 in 2014 before rising sharply to 112 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 10.67 in 2011 to 27.91 in 2019, a significant upward trend. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts ranged from 0.01% to 0.08%, peaking in 2019, suggesting an increasing share of state incidents despite the city's small size.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively low throughout the period, with a maximum of 2 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.46, occurring in 2014. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained consistently low, never surpassing 0.01%, indicating that this crime type is not a significant concern for the local community.
Arson incidents were rare, with only two reported cases in the entire decade - one each in 2012 and 2015. These isolated incidents resulted in rates of 0.23 and 0.23 per 1,000 people respectively. The city's contribution to state arson figures was negligible, with the highest percentage being 0.09% in 2012.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,000 per square mile in 2011 to 930 in 2020, property crimes generally increased, suggesting that factors other than population density are driving crime rates. There appears to be an inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as median income rose from $62,913 in 2013 to $70,763 in 2016, property crimes decreased from 36 to 40. However, when income dropped to $55,992 in 2019, property crimes spiked to 119.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend observed in recent years. Based on the historical data, we might expect to see property crimes ranging between 130-150 incidents annually by 2029, assuming no significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Galena has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns over the past decade. The most significant changes have been observed in larceny-theft incidents, which have shown a marked increase, particularly in relation to the city's population. Burglaries have fluctuated but remain a concern, while motor vehicle theft and arson have remained relatively low. The inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates underscores the potential impact of economic factors on criminal activity in the area. As Galena moves forward, addressing these trends will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
