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Property Crime Trends in Fultondale, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fultondale, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced significant fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable overall decrease of 17.3% from 231 incidents in 2010 to 271 in 2022. This trend occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's population increasing by 0.7% from 12,211 in 2010 to 12,123 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dynamic pattern. In 2010, there were 18 burglaries, which increased dramatically to 76 in 2011, representing a 322% rise. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 25 incidents. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.47 in 2010 to 2.06 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.08% in 2010 to a peak of 0.34% in 2016, before settling at 0.22% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, they remain a persistent concern relative to the state's figures.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, demonstrated significant volatility. From 202 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 333 in 2011 before declining to 197 in 2022, representing a slight 2.5% decrease over the period. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 16.54 in 2010 to 16.25 in 2022. Notably, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft increased from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.42% in 2022, indicating a growing share of this crime type relative to the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a concerning upward trend. From 11 incidents in 2010, it rose to 49 in 2022, a substantial 345% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.90 in 2010 to 4.04 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.73% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate growth compared to state trends.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only sporadic reports available. In 2011, there were 2 reported arsons, representing 0.36% of state arsons. The next available data point is in 2022, also showing 2 arsons, but now representing 0.38% of state arsons. This limited data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in motor vehicle thefts appears to coincide with a gradual increase in median income, which rose from $57,279 in 2013 to $60,248 in 2022. Additionally, the city saw a shift in racial demographics, with the white population decreasing from 59% in 2013 to 49% in 2022, while the Black population increased from 30% to 39% over the same period. These demographic shifts coincide with the observed changes in property crime patterns, particularly the rise in motor vehicle thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of recent patterns. Burglaries are expected to remain relatively stable, hovering around 25-30 incidents annually. Larceny-theft may see a slight decrease, potentially dropping to around 180-190 incidents per year. The most concerning projection is for motor vehicle theft, which could continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 60-65 incidents annually by 2029 if current trends persist.
In summary, Fultondale has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While overall property crime has decreased slightly, the composition of these crimes has shifted significantly. The dramatic rise in motor vehicle thefts, coupled with the city's increasing share of state-level crimes, suggests a need for targeted interventions. These trends, occurring alongside demographic changes and income growth, paint a picture of a city in transition, facing evolving challenges in maintaining public safety and property security.
