Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Fresno: A Decade of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fresno, California, a vibrant city in the heart of the San Joaquin Valley, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Fresno decreased by 22.9%, from 24,460 to 18,862 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a population growth of 9.96%, from 496,147 to 545,564 residents, suggesting a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to the city's expanding population.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 5,262 burglaries reported, which decreased to 3,980 by 2022, representing a 24.4% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 10.61 in 2010 to 7.30 in 2022, a 31.2% decrease. Interestingly, despite this local decrease, Fresno's share of state burglaries increased from 2.85% in 2010 to 3.4% in 2022, indicating that the city's burglary reduction was less pronounced than the statewide trend.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a downward trend, though less dramatic than burglary. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 14,645 in 2010 to 11,748 in 2022, a 19.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 29.52 to 21.53, a 27.1% decrease. The city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 2.85% in 2010 to 2.36% in 2022, suggesting that the local trend was somewhat in line with statewide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more volatile pattern. While there was an overall decrease from 4,553 incidents in 2010 to 3,134 in 2022 (a 31.2% reduction), the trend was not consistently downward. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.18 to 5.74, a 37.5% decrease. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 3.56% to 2.04%, indicating that Fresno's improvement in this area outpaced the state average.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but ultimately decreased from 147 incidents in 2010 to 121 in 2022, a 17.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.30 to 0.22, a 26.7% decrease. Notably, the city's share of state arson cases decreased from 2.39% to 1.96%, suggesting that Fresno's arson reduction was more significant than the statewide trend.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 4,283 per square mile in 2010 to 4,710 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be an inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $40,179 in 2013 to $64,196 in 2022, property crime rates consistently declined, indicating that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are projected to decrease by an additional 10-15%, while larceny-theft may see a more modest reduction of 5-10%. Motor vehicle theft rates are expected to stabilize or decrease slightly by 3-5%. Arson cases are predicted to remain relatively stable, with potential fluctuations within a 5% range.
In conclusion, Fresno has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, outpacing population growth and often improving faster than statewide averages. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic development could further enhance public safety. While challenges remain, the city's trajectory indicates a positive outlook for property crime reduction in the coming years, positioning Fresno as an increasingly safer urban center in California.
