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Property Crime Trends in Frankfort, Kentucky: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Frankfort, the capital city of Kentucky, has experienced notable changes in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly, from 951 to 553, representing a 41.85% reduction. During this same period, the city's population grew from 34,065 to 35,357, a 3.79% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 188 burglaries, which dropped to 87 in 2022, a 53.72% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.52 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.46 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.96% in 2010 to a peak of 3.09% in 2018, before settling at 1.77% in 2022. This trend suggests improved local security measures or changing criminal patterns.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend. In 2010, there were 745 cases, which reduced to 390 in 2022, a 47.65% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 21.87 in 2010 to 11.03 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, increasing slightly from 1.28% in 2010 to 1.52% in 2022. This consistent decrease in larceny-theft rates indicates effective crime prevention strategies or changing socioeconomic factors in the city.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number increased from 18 in 2010 to 76 in 2022, a 322.22% rise, the rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.53 to 2.15. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.41% in 2010 to 1.83% in 2022. This significant increase, especially in recent years, may suggest a need for targeted prevention efforts in this specific area of property crime.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but volatile. The number of incidents fluctuated from 3 in 2010 to a high of 10 in 2015, before returning to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0.09 to 0.30 during this period. The city's proportion of state arsons varied widely, from 0.72% in 2010 to a peak of 5.43% in 2015, settling at 2.17% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest that arson remains a sporadic issue requiring ongoing vigilance.
A strong correlation was observed between the overall decline in property crimes and the gradual increase in median income. As the median income rose from $49,474 in 2013 to $55,582 in 2022, property crimes decreased, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decline in property crimes. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, potentially reaching around 70 and 300 incidents respectively by 2029. Motor vehicle theft might stabilize or show a slight decrease, possibly settling around 65-70 cases annually. Arson is projected to remain low but unpredictable, likely averaging 2-4 cases per year.
In summary, Frankfort has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's growing population and increasing median income appear to correlate with these positive trends. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. As the capital city continues to evolve, maintaining and enhancing these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
