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Property Crime Trends in Fowler, Colorado: Stability Amidst Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fowler, Colorado, a small community with a population of 1,400 residents in 2022, has experienced interesting patterns and shifts in criminal activity from 2011 to 2020. An analysis of property crime trends in this town reveals a relatively stable environment with some notable variations across different crime categories. The total number of property crimes in Fowler has remained relatively consistent, ranging from 5 to 9 incidents annually between 2011 and 2020. This represents a modest 33.33% increase over the decade, from 6 incidents in 2011 to 8 in 2020. During this same period, the population decreased by 4.29%, from 1,560 in 2011 to 1,543 in 2020.
Burglary trends in the city have shown some volatility. In 2011, there was 1 reported burglary, which remained constant in 2012 and 2014. The number peaked at 4 incidents in 2019, representing a 300% increase from 2011. However, it dropped back to 1 incident in 2020. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.64 in 2011 to 0.65 in 2020, a marginal rise of 1.56%. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.03% in 2019 before dropping to 0.01% in 2020.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a downward trend. In 2011, there were 5 reported cases, which increased to 7 in 2012. However, by 2020, the number had decreased to 4 incidents, representing a 20% reduction from 2011. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.21 in 2011 to 2.59 in 2020, a 19.31% reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics has remained minimal, consistently at or below 0.01% throughout the period.
Motor vehicle theft has shown an upward trend. There were no reported cases in 2011 and 2012, but by 2020, there were 3 incidents. This represents a significant increase in the rate per 1,000 people, from 0 to 1.94. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics has increased from 0% to 0.01% over the decade.
Arson incidents in Fowler have been consistently reported as 0 from 2011 to 2020, indicating no change in this particular crime category over the years. Consequently, the arson rate per 1,000 people and the city's contribution to state arson statistics have remained at 0 throughout the period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime and median income. As median income increased from $35,025 in 2013 to $40,729 in 2020, the total property crime incidents decreased slightly from 9 in 2015 to 8 in 2020. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on the historical data, we might expect to see between 9 to 11 total property crime incidents annually by 2029. This prediction assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain relatively constant.
In summary, Fowler has experienced varying trends across different property crime categories over the past decade. While burglary and larceny-theft have shown some fluctuations with an overall downward trend, motor vehicle theft has increased. The consistent absence of arson incidents is a positive aspect of the city's crime profile. These trends, combined with the modest population changes and economic factors, suggest that Fowler maintains a relatively stable property crime environment, with potential for slight increases in the coming years.
