Motor vehicle theft in the city has experienced a significant increase. In 2010, there were 5 reported cases, which dropped to 1 in 2011, but then surged to 12 in 2022. This represents a 140% increase from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.14 in 2010 to 4.72 in 2022. Most notably, the city's contribution to the state's motor vehicle theft incidents rose dramatically from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2022, indicating that the city is experiencing a disproportionate increase in this type of crime compared to the state average.

Arson data for the city is limited, with no reported cases in 2011 and 2022, and no data available for 2010. This lack of incidents suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in motor vehicle thefts coincides with a rise in population density, which grew from 412 per square mile in 2010 to 449 in 2022. This could suggest that increased urbanization may be contributing to higher rates of vehicle theft. Additionally, the city has experienced a shift in racial demographics, with the Black population increasing from 73% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 27% to 15% over the same period. This demographic change occurred alongside the fluctuations in property crime rates, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Burglaries may continue to increase slightly, potentially reaching 6-7 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is likely to remain stable or show a slight decrease, potentially averaging around 25 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft presents the most concerning trend, with projections indicating a possible increase to 15-18 incidents annually if current trends persist.

In summary, Fort Deposit has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While overall property crime has decreased, specific categories like motor vehicle theft have seen significant increases. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to be intertwined with these crime trends. As the community continues to evolve, local law enforcement and policymakers may need to pay particular attention to addressing the rising motor vehicle theft rates while maintaining the positive trends in other areas of property crime.