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Property Crime Trends in Fordland, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fordland, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 19 in 2010 and ending at 12 in 2020, representing a 36.84% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 1,763 in 2010 to 2,076 in 2020, an increase of 17.75%.
Burglary trends in the city show notable fluctuations. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which peaked at 7 in 2012 and 2015, before decreasing to 1 in 2020. The burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.27 in 2010 to 0.48 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.03% over the years. This indicates that while burglaries have decreased overall, they remain a small fraction of state totals.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed significant variation. From 13 incidents in 2010, it reached a high of 25 in 2016 before decreasing to 11 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 7.37 in 2010 to 5.30 in 2020. The city's contribution to state larceny theft remained low, generally between 0.01% and 0.03%, suggesting that these crimes, while locally significant, have minimal impact on state statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively rare. There were 2 incidents in 2010, followed by years with no reported cases, and then 1 incident in 2018 and 2019, before returning to 0 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.13 in 2010 to 0 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained negligible, never exceeding 0.02%.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic. There were no reported cases in most years, with notable exceptions in 2011 (4 cases) and 2019 (2 cases). In 2011, the arson rate spiked to 1.98 per 1,000 people, and the city accounted for 0.42% of state arsons, an unusually high percentage for its size. This suggests that while arson is not a persistent problem, isolated incidents can significantly impact the city's crime statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $44,675 in 2013 to $48,784.50 in 2020, the total property crimes decreased from 8 to 12 during the same period. However, this correlation is not strong enough to imply causation.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Fordland may continue to decline slightly. The total number of property crimes could potentially decrease to around 10 incidents per year, with larceny theft remaining the most common offense.
In summary, Fordland has experienced an overall decrease in property crimes despite population growth. Larceny theft remains the primary concern, while burglaries have shown a significant decline. Motor vehicle theft and arson are infrequent but can cause notable spikes in crime statistics when they occur. The city's contribution to state crime totals remains minimal across all categories, indicating that local law enforcement efforts may be effective in managing property crime rates relative to the state average.
