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Property Crime Trends in Foley, Alabama: A Decade of Growth and Shifting Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Foley, located in Alabama, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside substantial population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 10.58%, rising from 501 to 554 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 53.26%, from 21,323 to 32,680 residents, indicating a disproportionate increase in population compared to property crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable fluctuations over time. In 2010, there were 63 burglaries, which increased to 145 in 2022, representing a 130.16% increase. However, when considering the population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from 2.95 in 2010 to 4.44 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries rose significantly, from 0.27% in 2010 to 1.28% in 2022, indicating that while the local rate decreased relative to population, it increased compared to state-wide figures.
Larceny theft incidents have shown a different pattern. In 2010, there were 408 incidents, which decreased to 367 in 2022, representing a 10.05% decline. When adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased more dramatically from 19.13 in 2010 to 11.23 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts increased from 0.56% in 2010 to 0.79% in 2022, suggesting that despite the local decrease, the city's share of state incidents grew.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen an increase over the years. In 2010, there were 30 incidents, which rose to 42 in 2022, marking a 40% increase. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 1.41 in 2010 to 1.29 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.63% in 2022, indicating a growing proportion of these crimes occurring within the city relative to the state.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only sporadic reporting over the years. In 2022, 3 arson incidents were reported, representing 0.56% of state arsons. Due to the lack of consistent data, it's challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 655 per square mile in 2010 to 1,005 in 2022, property crime rates per capita generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved safety measures. Additionally, the rise in median income from $39,986 in 2013 to $55,367 in 2022 coincided with a general decrease in property crime rates, potentially indicating a relationship between economic improvement and reduced crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates, assuming current demographic and economic trends continue. The city may experience a further decline in larceny theft rates, while burglary and motor vehicle theft rates might stabilize or show modest increases.
In conclusion, Foley has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The divergent trends in different types of property crimes, coupled with demographic and economic changes, present a complex picture of the city's evolving safety landscape. As the community continues to grow and develop, maintaining focus on targeted crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these trends.
