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Property Crime Trends in Florence, Kentucky: A Decade of Progress Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Florence, Kentucky, a city that has experienced significant population growth, has also seen notable changes in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, as the population increased by 13.9% from 37,593 to 42,827 residents, the total number of property crimes decreased by 14.7%, from 1,586 to 1,353 incidents. This inverse relationship indicates a substantial improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary incidents in Florence have shown a remarkable decline over time. The number of burglaries dropped from 206 in 2010 to 73 in 2022, representing a 64.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.48 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.70 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this local decline, Florence's share of state burglaries increased from 1.05% in 2010 to 1.48% in 2022, suggesting that the city's improvement outpaced the state average.
Larceny theft, which remains the most common property crime in Florence, exhibited a slight decrease over the years. The number of larceny thefts reduced from 1,317 in 2010 to 1,231 in 2022, a 6.5% decrease. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased more significantly from 35.03 in 2010 to 28.74 in 2022. It's worth noting that Florence's share of state larceny thefts increased from 2.26% to 4.79% during this period, indicating that the city's larceny theft rates didn't improve as much as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends in Florence showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. The number of motor vehicle thefts decreased from 63 in 2010 to 49 in 2022, representing a 22.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.68 in 2010 to 1.14 in 2022. Florence's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 1.42% to 1.18%, suggesting that the city's improvement in this category was slightly better than the state average.
Arson cases in Florence remained relatively low throughout the period, with some fluctuations. The number of arson cases decreased from 3 in 2010 to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.08 to 0.05. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.72% to 1.45%, indicating that while arson remained low in Florence, it didn't improve as much as the state average.
A strong correlation was observed between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income in Florence. From 2013 to 2022, the median income rose from $61,535 to $69,831, a 13.5% increase, while property crimes decreased by 11.7% during the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Based on current trends, predictive models forecast that by 2029, Florence may experience a further 10-15% reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to continue their sharp decline, potentially reaching below 50 incidents annually. Larceny theft is projected to stabilize around 1,100-1,200 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate but are likely to remain below 60 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 cases per year.
In summary, Florence has demonstrated a positive trend in managing property crimes over the past decade, with significant improvements in burglary rates and moderate progress in other categories. The city's economic growth, as evidenced by rising median incomes, appears to have played a role in this improvement. However, Florence's share of state property crimes in some categories has increased, suggesting that while progress has been made, there's still room for improvement relative to state-wide trends. The projected continuation of these positive trends indicates a potentially safer future for Florence residents in terms of property crime.
