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Property Crime Trends in Flora, Illinois: A Decade of Declining Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Flora, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 137 in 2010 and decreasing to 73 in 2019, representing a 46.7% reduction. During this same period, the population decreased from 5,480 to 5,156, a 5.9% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which increased to 19 in 2013, representing a 216.7% increase. However, by 2019, this number had dropped to just 3 burglaries. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.09 in 2010 to 3.57 in 2013, before declining to 0.58 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.05% in 2013 and 2016, indicating periods where it contributed more significantly to the state's burglary statistics.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, demonstrated a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 126 larceny-thefts, which increased to 151 in 2012 before steadily declining to 65 in 2019, a 48.4% decrease over the decade. The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, peaking at 28.97 per 1,000 in 2012 and falling to 12.61 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained relatively stable, averaging around 0.07% throughout the period, with a slight decrease towards the end.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained low, with numbers ranging from 1 to 5 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0.19 and 0.97. Notably, despite the low numbers, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2019, suggesting a slight increase in the city's contribution to state statistics for this crime category.
Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2018 and another in 2020. This translates to a rate of 0.19 per 1,000 people in 2018 and 0.20 per 1,000 in 2020. The city's contribution to state arson statistics was 0.09% in 2018 and 0.08% in 2020, indicating a disproportionate impact given its size.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $35,541 in 2013 to $48,159 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 162 to 73. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime rates. However, population density and ownership percentages do not show strong correlations with property crime trends in this dataset.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant property crime but with numbers potentially falling below 50 incidents annually. Burglary rates are projected to stabilize at around 2-4 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft may continue to fluctuate between 1-5 incidents annually, while arson is expected to remain a rare occurrence with 0-1 cases per year.
In summary, Flora has experienced a notable decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft and burglary. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests improving safety and economic conditions in the city. The relatively stable contribution to state crime statistics, despite decreasing local numbers, indicates that the city is generally keeping pace with or outperforming statewide crime reduction efforts. As Flora moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the continued well-being and safety of its residents.
