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Property Crime Trends in Flomaton, Alabama: A Decade of Increasing Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Flomaton, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 31 in 2010 and ending at 61 in 2022, representing a 96.77% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 4,110 in 2010 to 3,537 in 2022, a decline of 13.94%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which increased to 21 by 2022, a 425% rise. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.97 in 2010 to 5.94 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also grew substantially, from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2022. This dramatic increase in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state crime, suggests a growing concern for local law enforcement and residents.
Larceny-theft trends have been more moderate but still show an overall increase. In 2010, there were 26 larceny-theft incidents, which rose to 36 by 2022, a 38.46% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 6.33 in 2010 to 10.18 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents doubled from 0.04% to 0.08% over this period. While not as dramatic as the burglary trend, the increase in larceny-theft is still significant and may indicate a need for targeted prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a more modest increase. From 1 incident in 2010, it rose to 4 in 2022, a 300% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.24 in 2010 to 1.13 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.06%. While the percentage increase is large, the absolute numbers remain relatively low, suggesting this may be a manageable issue for local law enforcement.
Arson data is limited, with only one reported incident in 2022, representing 0.19% of state arsons. Due to the lack of historical data, it's difficult to establish a trend or draw meaningful conclusions about arson in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 808 per square mile in 2010 to 695 in 2022, property crime rates increased. This inverse relationship suggests that factors other than population density may be driving the rise in property crimes. The median income showed slight fluctuations, ranging from $31,814 in 2013 to $33,568 in 2022, but does not appear to have a strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests a potential continuation of the upward trajectory. By 2029, which is five years from now, the total number of property crimes could reach approximately 75-80 incidents annually if current trends persist. This projection assumes no significant changes in law enforcement strategies or socioeconomic conditions.
In summary, Flomaton has experienced a notable increase in property crimes, particularly burglaries, despite a declining population. The disproportionate rise in the city's share of state crimes across multiple categories indicates that local factors may be contributing to these trends. As the community looks towards the future, addressing these rising property crime rates will likely be a key priority for local officials and residents alike.
