Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Fayetteville: Fort Bragg's Neighbor Sees Significant Reductions
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fayetteville, North Carolina, a city known for its proximity to Fort Bragg, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 42.5%, from 12,566 to 7,224. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a modest population growth of 3.9%, from 201,077 in 2010 to 208,888 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 3,928 burglaries, which dropped to 1,298 in 2022, representing a 67% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 19.5 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 6.2 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 7.28% in 2010 to 5.31% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, while still the most common property crime, has also seen a downward trend. In 2010, there were 7,916 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 5,381 in 2022, a 32% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 39.4 in 2010 to 25.8 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state larceny-thefts decreased from 6.09% in 2010 to 4.50% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in this crime category outpaced the state average. This trend may reflect enhanced retail security or community-based crime prevention efforts.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a more complex pattern. While the number of thefts decreased from 722 in 2010 to 545 in 2022, a 24.5% reduction, the rate per 1,000 people only dropped from 3.6 to 2.6. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 6.84% to 3.74% over the same period. This suggests that while improvements have been made, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue, possibly due to changing tactics by criminals or fluctuations in economic conditions.
Arson cases in the city have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 53 reported arsons, which increased to 82 in 2022, a 54.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.26 in 2010 to 0.39 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state arsons rose from 5.2% to 9.32% during this period. This concerning trend may indicate a need for targeted fire prevention and investigation resources.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $44,924 in 2013 to $56,685 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 12,261 to 7,224. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, Fayetteville could see further reductions in overall property crime rates. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 1,000 and 4,800 incidents respectively. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize around 500 cases annually. However, if the current trend persists, arson cases could potentially increase to around 100 per year, necessitating focused prevention efforts.
In summary, Fayetteville has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft categories. The correlation between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic development could further enhance public safety. However, the concerning trend in arson cases and the persistent challenge of motor vehicle thefts highlight areas requiring ongoing attention from law enforcement and community leaders.
