Motor vehicle theft showed a slight increase from 6 incidents in 2017 to 7 in 2018, a 16.67% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.29 to 1.52. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.07% to 0.08%, indicating a marginal increase in the city's contribution to statewide figures. While the absolute numbers are small, this trend warrants attention as it contrasts with the overall reduction in property crimes.

Arson cases in the city increased from 3 in 2017 to 5 in 2018, a substantial 66.67% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.64 to 1.08. More alarmingly, the city's share of state arsons jumped from 0.37% to 0.60%, a significant increase that suggests arson became a more pronounced issue in the city compared to statewide trends. This sharp rise in arson cases, while involving small numbers, represents a concerning trend that merits focused attention from law enforcement and community leaders.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some noteworthy patterns. The city experienced a steady decline in median income, dropping from $32,042 in 2013 to $24,367 in 2022, a 23.95% decrease. This economic downturn coincides with the observed fluctuations in property crime rates, particularly the increase in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units decreased from 65% in 2013 to 59% in 2022, which could be linked to the changing property crime landscape, especially in relation to burglary rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the observed patterns. If current trends persist, we might expect to see a further slight decrease in overall property crimes, with larceny-theft likely continuing its downward trajectory. However, burglaries, motor vehicle thefts, and particularly arson cases may continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate. The forecasted population decline and potential further reduction in median income could exacerbate these trends.

In summary, Farrell's property crime landscape presents a mixed picture. While overall property crime and larceny-theft rates have decreased, the city faces challenges with rising burglary, motor vehicle theft, and especially arson rates. These trends, coupled with declining population and income levels, underscore the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime rates. As the city moves forward, targeted strategies to address these specific crime categories, particularly arson prevention, will be crucial in shaping a safer community environment.