Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents fluctuated between 1 and 6 over the years, with no reported cases in 2022. The highest number was recorded in 2020 with 6 incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, peaking at 1.37 in 2020 and dropping to 0 in 2022. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0.02% to 0.13%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2020.

Arson cases in the city have been rare, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number of arson cases was reported in 2015 with 2 incidents, representing 1.09% of state arson cases that year. In 2022, there was 1 reported arson case, accounting for 0.72% of state arson incidents. Due to the low numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents remained close to zero throughout the period.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income decreased from $44,129 in 2013 to $35,554 in 2022, property crime rates initially decreased but then showed some volatility in recent years. This suggests that economic factors may play a role in property crime trends, but the relationship is not straightforward.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. Based on recent trends, burglaries may continue to fluctuate around 10-15 incidents per year, while larceny-theft could stabilize around 20-25 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts are predicted to remain low, likely not exceeding 5 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain rare, with 0-1 incidents per year.

In summary, Falmouth has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite a relatively stable population. Burglary and larceny-theft rates have shown substantial decreases, while motor vehicle theft and arson rates have remained low with some fluctuations. The city's share of state property crimes has varied across different categories, indicating that local trends don't always mirror state-wide patterns. Economic factors appear to have some influence on crime rates, but the relationship is complex. Looking ahead, the city may see a stabilization in property crime rates, with potential for slight increases in some categories. These trends highlight the importance of continued focus on crime prevention strategies and economic development initiatives in Falmouth to maintain and improve public safety.