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Property Crime Trends in Falfurrias, Texas: A Decade of Significant Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Falfurrias, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 185 to 10 incidents, representing a 94.6% reduction. This dramatic decline occurred against a backdrop of population fluctuation, with the city's population initially growing from 4,154 in 2010 to a peak of 4,946 in 2015, before declining to 4,184 by 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 76 burglary incidents, which decreased to just 4 in 2022, marking a 94.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 18.3 incidents per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.96 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this significant decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.09% in 2018 before dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made substantial progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement has been somewhat inconsistent relative to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a considerable decline, from 108 cases in 2010 to 4 in 2022, a 96.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 26 in 2010 to 0.96 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively low throughout this period, hovering between 0.01% and 0.03%, before dropping to 0% in 2022. This indicates that the city has consistently maintained a lower proportion of larceny-theft incidents compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been remarkably low, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number recorded was just 2 cases in 2022, translating to a rate of 0.48 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures has consistently been negligible, never exceeding 0.01%. This suggests that motor vehicle theft has not been a significant concern for the city throughout the observed period.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but generally remained low. The highest number of arsons reported was 9 in 2010, dropping to 0 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people peaked at 2.17 in 2010 and has since declined to 0. Notably, the city's contribution to state arson figures was relatively high in some years, reaching 0.25% in 2015, before dropping to 0% in recent years. This indicates that while arson has not been a persistent problem, there were periods when it was more prevalent relative to state figures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $18,627 in 2013 to $28,761 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 109 to 10. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029, Falfurrias could see its total property crime incidents reduce further to around 5-7 per year, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue. Burglary and larceny-theft might stabilize at 2-3 incidents each annually, while motor vehicle theft and arson could remain at or near zero.
In conclusion, Falfurrias has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime statistics over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a community that has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety. These trends, particularly when viewed alongside the increase in median income, suggest a positive trajectory for the city's overall well-being and security in the coming years.
