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Property Crime Trends in Fairview Park, Ohio: A Significant Decline Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fairview Park, located in Ohio, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2016 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, falling from 227 to 93 incidents, representing a 59% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a modest population growth of 4% over the same period, from 16,479 to 17,137 residents.
The burglary rate in the city has shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2016, there were 35 burglaries, which decreased to just 4 in 2022, marking an 88.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.12 per 1,000 residents in 2016 to 0.23 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.08% in 2016 to 0.02% in 2022. This significant drop in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a considerable decrease. The number of incidents fell from 183 in 2016 to 73 in 2022, a 60.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 11.11 in 2016 to 4.26 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents decreased from 0.13% to 0.07% over this period. This trend indicates a significant improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents increased from 9 in 2016 to 16 in 2022, representing a 77.8% increase, the rate per 1,000 residents only rose slightly from 0.55 to 0.93. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.06% to 0.07%, suggesting that this crime type did not follow the overall decreasing trend of other property crimes.
Arson cases in the city have been rare and sporadic. The data shows only one reported case each in 2017, 2018, and 2020, with no cases in other years. This low incidence makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it's worth noting that when arson did occur, it represented a relatively high percentage of state arson cases (up to 0.15% in 2020), indicating that while infrequent, these incidents were significant in the state context.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a notable inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $54,935 in 2013 to $65,107 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Burglary and larceny theft are likely to maintain their downward trajectories, potentially reaching even lower levels. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to pose a challenge, with a possible slight increase or stabilization at current levels.
In summary, Fairview Park has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime situation over the past several years. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny theft, coupled with the city's economic growth, paint a picture of a community becoming safer and more prosperous. While motor vehicle theft remains an area of concern, the overall trend suggests a positive outlook for the city's safety and security in the coming years.
