Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more volatile pattern. From 53 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 38 in 2019, a 28.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 1.14 in 2010 to 0.82 in 2019. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.32% in 2010 to 0.39% in 2013, before declining to 0.27% in 2019. This suggests that while the city made progress in reducing motor vehicle thefts, its performance relative to the state was inconsistent.

Arson cases in the city fluctuated considerably over the years. From 2 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 11 in 2012 before dropping to 0 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.04 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2012, ending at 0 in 2019. The city's share of state arson cases varied widely, from 0.07% in 2010 to a high of 0.58% in 2013, before dropping to 0% in 2019. This volatility suggests that arson incidents, while relatively rare, can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics when they occur.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The steady decrease in property crimes coincided with a gradual increase in population density, which rose from 2,227 per square mile in 2010 to 2,309 in 2022. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the declining property crime rates and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 80% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, while the city saw increases in Asian, Black, and Hispanic populations. This demographic shift coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, suggesting potential changes in community dynamics and crime prevention strategies.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data, we can project that total property crimes may decrease by an additional 10-15% by 2029. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously, as various factors such as economic conditions, law enforcement strategies, and demographic changes can influence crime rates.

In conclusion, Fairfield has demonstrated a commendable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates, coupled with more modest reductions in motor vehicle theft, indicate effective crime prevention strategies. The city's changing demographics and increasing diversity appear to correlate with these positive trends. As the community continues to evolve, maintaining and adapting these successful approaches will be crucial in sustaining the downward trajectory of property crimes in the coming years.