Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a significant decline. From 54 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 27 in 2022, a 50% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.85 in 2010 to 1.18 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics decreased from 0.46% in 2010 to 0.28% in 2022, indicating that local efforts to combat this crime have been more effective than the state average.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare, with most years reporting either zero or one incident. The highest reported number was 3 cases in 2013. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a meaningful trend or rate per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state arson statistics has remained minimal, fluctuating between 0% and 1.12% over the years.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 830 per square mile in 2010 to 1,350 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that the growing urban density has not led to an increase in property crimes, contrary to what might be expected. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the rising median income (from $64,426 in 2013 to $66,589 in 2022) and the decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data, we can project that by 2029: - Burglaries may decrease further to around 10-15 incidents per year - Larceny-theft could stabilize at approximately 150-160 cases annually - Motor vehicle theft might reduce to about 20-25 incidents yearly - Arson cases are likely to remain at very low levels, possibly 0-1 per year

In summary, Fairburn has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates despite significant population growth. The substantial decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft rates, both in absolute numbers and per capita, indicate effective crime prevention strategies and improved community safety. The city's evolving demographic and economic landscape, characterized by increasing population density and rising median income, appears to correlate positively with reduced crime rates. As Fairburn continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the long-term safety and prosperity of its residents.