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Property Crime Trends in Fair Play: A Small Missouri City's Remarkable Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fair Play, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. With a population of 1,367 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. The total number of property crimes varied significantly, from a low of 0 in 2011 to a high of 10 in 2017, before decreasing to 1 in 2022. This represents a 90% decrease in property crimes from 2017 to 2022. Simultaneously, the population grew by 48% from 924 in 2017 to 1,367 in 2022, adding complexity to the crime rate analysis.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable fluctuations. In 2010, there was 1 reported burglary, which then dropped to 0 in 2011 and 2012. The rate increased again to 1 in 2013 and 2014, peaked at 2 in 2015, and then stabilized at 1 per year from 2016 to 2017. By 2022, burglaries had decreased to 0. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.95 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to Fair Play remained consistently low, reaching a maximum of 0.01% in 2015.
Larceny-theft trends show a similar pattern of fluctuation. There were no reported larceny-thefts in 2010 and 2011, but the number rose to 3 in 2012. After dropping back to 0 in 2013 and 2014, it peaked at 8 in 2017, representing a rate of 8.66 per 1,000 people. By 2022, larceny-thefts had decreased to 0. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics reached a maximum of 0.01% in 2015-2017, indicating a minimal impact on overall state crime rates.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively rare. There were no reported cases from 2010 to 2014. The first reported case was in 2015, and this level of 1 theft per year was maintained through 2017. In 2022, there was again 1 reported motor vehicle theft, representing a rate of 0.73 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics reached a maximum of 0.01% in 2015-2017.
Arson cases have been consistently absent in Fair Play throughout the reported period from 2010 to 2022, with 0 cases reported each year. This indicates that arson has not been a significant concern for the community during this time.
Examining correlations between crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 2,249 people per square mile in 2017 to 3,327 in 2022, property crimes decreased from 10 to 1. This suggests a potential negative correlation between population density and property crime rates. Additionally, the median income rose from $33,740 in 2017 to $33,005 in 2022, while property crimes decreased, indicating a possible inverse relationship between income levels and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in property crime rates. Based on the recent downward trend and the city's growing population, we might expect to see property crimes remain at low levels, potentially between 0 to 2 cases per year.
In summary, Fair Play has demonstrated a notable improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The significant decrease in overall property crimes, particularly from 2017 to 2022, coupled with population growth, suggests effective crime prevention strategies or improved community dynamics. The consistent absence of arson cases and the low rates of burglary and motor vehicle theft in recent years paint a picture of a relatively safe small city. These trends, if maintained, could contribute positively to the city's quality of life and economic development prospects in the coming years.
