Motor vehicle theft has seen a significant increase, from just 1 incident in 2010 to 12 in 2022. This represents a 1100% increase, though the absolute numbers remain relatively low. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.10 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has grown from 0% to 0.01%, indicating a slight increase in its contribution to statewide statistics.

Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2015. This single incident represented 0.04% of state arsons that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it difficult to establish any meaningful trends for this crime category.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 785 per square mile in 2010 to 1,866 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in overall property crime rates. This suggests that the growing urbanization of the area may be contributing to higher crime rates. However, the city has maintained a high median income, ranging from $124,544 in 2013 to $122,061 in 2022, which typically correlates with lower crime rates. The relatively stable and high percentage of owner-occupied housing (91% in 2022) may also contribute to community stability and potentially mitigate crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend in overall property crimes. Based on the historical data and current growth patterns, we might expect to see total property crimes reach approximately 150-170 incidents by 2029. However, when adjusted for the projected population growth, the per capita crime rate may stabilize or even decrease slightly.

In summary, Fair Oaks Ranch has experienced significant growth in both population and property crime incidents over the past decade. While the absolute numbers of crimes have increased, the per capita rates for most categories have remained relatively stable or shown only modest increases. The city's contribution to statewide crime statistics has grown but remains small. The interplay between rapid population growth, high median income, and stable home ownership rates appears to be influencing crime trends in complex ways. As the city continues to grow, maintaining community engagement and proactive law enforcement strategies will be crucial in managing future crime trends.