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Property Crime Trends in Fair Grove: A City's Growth and Its Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fair Grove, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes in the city increased by 75%, rising from 16 to 28 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 16.5%, from 3,159 to 3,681 residents. This disproportionate increase in property crimes relative to population growth warrants a closer examination of the underlying factors and trends.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which increased to 10 in 2017, representing a 150% increase. However, by 2018, the number dropped back to 4. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.27 in 2010 to 2.78 in 2017, before decreasing to 1.09 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries also varied, peaking at 0.05% in 2017 before dropping to 0.02% in 2018. These fluctuations suggest periodic spikes in burglary activity followed by periods of increased law enforcement or community vigilance.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a more consistent upward trend. From 9 cases in 2010, the number rose to 22 in 2018, a 144% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.85 in 2010 to 5.98 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases doubled from 0.01% to 0.02% over this period. This steady rise in larceny-theft suggests a growing problem that may require targeted prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been sporadic. There were 3 cases in 2010, dropping to zero in some years, and rising back to 2 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.95 in 2010 to 0.54 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0% and 0.02%. These fluctuations indicate that motor vehicle theft is not a persistent problem but occurs in isolated incidents.
Arson cases in Fair Grove have been rare, with only one reported incident in 2016. This single case represented 0.12% of state arson cases that year. The sporadic nature of arson in the city suggests it is not a significant ongoing concern.
A notable correlation exists between the rise in property crimes and the increase in population density. As the population density grew from 991 per square mile in 2010 to 1,155 in 2018, total property crimes increased from 16 to 28. Additionally, there appears to be a relationship between rising median income and property crime rates. The median income increased from $54,895 in 2013 to $69,116 in 2018, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall property crimes, primarily driven by larceny-theft. The model suggests that by 2029, Fair Grove could see approximately 35-40 property crimes annually, with larceny-theft potentially accounting for 70-75% of these incidents.
In summary, Fair Grove has experienced a notable increase in property crimes, particularly larceny-theft, over the past decade. This trend appears to be correlated with population growth, increasing population density, and rising median incomes. While burglary and motor vehicle theft show more variable patterns, larceny-theft emerges as the primary concern for the future. As the city continues to grow and prosper, local authorities may need to implement targeted strategies to address the rising property crime rates, with a particular focus on preventing larceny-theft incidents.
