Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Fair Bluff: Small Town Sees Big Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fair Bluff, a small town in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over recent years. From 2015 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 73.58%, from 53 to 14 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population decline of 57.38%, from 1,429 residents in 2015 to 609 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable fluctuations. In 2015, there were 11 burglaries, which decreased to 2 in 2019, then rose to 8 in 2020, before dropping to 5 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 7.70 in 2015 to 8.21 in 2022, despite the overall decrease in incidents. This suggests that while the absolute number of burglaries has decreased, the risk per capita has slightly increased. The city's share of state burglaries decreased from 0.04% in 2015 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a relative improvement compared to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a significant downward trend. In 2015, there were 35 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 9 in 2022, representing a 74.29% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 24.49 in 2015 to 14.78 in 2022, suggesting an improvement in public safety regarding this crime type. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.04% in 2015 to 0.01% in 2022.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a volatile pattern. There were 7 incidents in 2015, dropping to zero in 2019 and 2021, with a slight increase to 2 in 2020, before returning to zero in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.90 in 2015 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.1% in 2015 to 0% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement relative to statewide trends.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with zero reported cases in most years. However, there was one arson incident in 2021, which represented 0.11% of state arson cases that year. This single incident resulted in a rate of 1.57 arsons per 1,000 residents in 2021, a significant spike for a small town.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and home ownership percentages. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 62% in 2015 to 72% in 2022, total property crimes decreased. This suggests that higher rates of home ownership may contribute to lower property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in property crimes to approximately 8-10 incidents annually, assuming current trends continue. This projection takes into account the ongoing population decline and increasing home ownership rates.
In summary, Fair Bluff has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2015 to 2022, with larceny-theft showing the most substantial improvement. While burglary rates per capita have slightly increased, the town's contribution to state crime figures has generally decreased across all categories. The inverse correlation between property crime and home ownership rates suggests that community stability plays a role in crime reduction. As the town continues to face demographic changes, maintaining and enhancing community engagement and homeownership could be key factors in sustaining these positive trends in property crime reduction.
