Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years. From zero reported cases in 2010, it peaked at 4 in 2012, and then settled at 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0 in 2010 to 0.57 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This relatively low and stable rate of motor vehicle theft suggests that it may not be a primary concern for law enforcement in the city.

Arson cases in the city have remained low but consistent. Data shows one reported case in 2011, 2021, and 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people was 0.40 in 2011 and 0.57 in 2022. Notably, the city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0.18% in 2011 to 0.19% in 2022. This significant percentage of state arsons, despite the low absolute numbers, could indicate a disproportionate arson problem in the city relative to its size.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong negative correlation between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,266 per square mile in 2010 to 1,059 in 2022, property crimes increased. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between homeownership rates and crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes decreased from 83% in 2013 to 72% in 2020, coinciding with an increase in property crimes. This suggests that lower homeownership rates may be associated with higher property crime rates in the city.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued increase in overall property crimes. Based on the current trajectory, burglaries are expected to rise to approximately 12 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may reach around 20 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is predicted to remain relatively stable at 1-2 cases per year. Arson cases are forecasted to maintain their current rate of about one incident per year.

In conclusion, Excel has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. The most significant changes have been observed in burglary and larceny-theft rates, which have increased substantially despite a decreasing population. The city's growing contribution to state-level crime statistics, particularly in arson cases, highlights the need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The inverse relationship between population density, homeownership rates, and property crime rates suggests that socio-economic factors play a crucial role in the city's crime dynamics. As Excel looks toward the future, addressing these trends will be essential for improving public safety and community well-being.