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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Eureka, Montana, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 28 in 2012 and dropping to a low of 1 in 2021, marking a 94.12% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population experienced modest growth, increasing from 1,612 in 2010 to 1,762 in 2022, a 9.31% rise.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries reported, representing 0.11% of the state's total. This number peaked at 6 in 2011 (0.30% of the state's total) before declining to zero reported cases in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2021. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.24 in 2010 to 0 in 2021. This trend suggests an improvement in home and business security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness in deterring such crimes.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a significant reduction. In 2010, there were 15 reported cases (0.13% of the state's total), which increased to 24 in 2012 (0.17% of the state's total) before dropping to just 1 case in 2021 (0.01% of the state's total). The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.31 in 2010 to 0.72 in 2021. This substantial decrease could indicate improved community vigilance or successful crime prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the period. There were no reported cases in 2010 and 2011, with a peak of 3 cases in 2018 (0.21% of the state's total). By 2021, there were again no reported cases. The highest rate per 1,000 residents was 1.61 in 2018, dropping to 0 in 2021. This low and decreasing trend might reflect effective anti-theft measures or limited opportunities for such crimes in a small town setting.
Arson cases have been consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2021, representing 0% of the state's total each year. This absence of arson cases suggests either strong fire safety measures or a community environment that discourages such destructive behavior.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $27,808 in 2013 to $37,154 in 2021, total property crimes decreased from 15 to 1. Additionally, there's a slight correlation between property crime rates and population density. For instance, in 2018, when population density peaked at 1,407 people per square mile, property crimes also saw a relative increase to 11 cases.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that property crime rates will continue to remain low or potentially decrease further over the next five years, reaching 2029. The city may see total property crimes hovering between 0-5 cases annually, with larceny-theft likely remaining the most common type of property crime.
In conclusion, Eureka has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The significant decrease in various property crime categories, particularly when considered alongside population growth, suggests a safer and more secure community environment. These positive trends, if maintained, could contribute to enhanced quality of life and potentially attract new residents and businesses to the area.