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Property Crime Trends in Enterprise, Alabama: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Enterprise, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, showing an overall decrease of 32.6% from 1,081 in 2011 to 729 in 2022. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's residents increasing by 12.7% from 31,007 in 2011 to 34,931 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2011, there were 293 burglaries, which decreased to 144 by 2022, marking a 50.9% reduction. When normalized for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.45 in 2011 to 4.12 in 2022, a 56.4% decrease. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.79% in 2011 to 1.27% in 2022, suggesting a faster decline in burglaries at the state level compared to the city.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a notable decrease. The number of larceny thefts dropped from 729 in 2011 to 525 in 2022, a 28% reduction. Adjusting for population, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 23.51 in 2011 to 15.03 in 2022, a 36.1% decline. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures increased slightly from 0.82% in 2011 to 1.13% in 2022, indicating that the city's reduction in larceny theft was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility but ultimately remained relatively stable. In 2011, there were 59 motor vehicle thefts, which only slightly increased to 60 by 2022. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 1.90 in 2011 to 1.72 in 2022, a 9.5% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.70% in 2011 to 0.90% in 2022, suggesting that the city maintained a relatively consistent level of motor vehicle thefts while the state potentially saw larger reductions.
Arson data for the city is limited and inconsistent, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends over time. The available data shows 3 arsons in 2011 and 3 in 2022, with the city's share of state arsons increasing from 0.54% to 0.56% over this period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,001 people per square mile in 2011 to 1,128 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, there appears to be a negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $55,598 in 2013 to $62,572 in 2022, property crime rates generally declined, indicating that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 4 per 1,000 residents, while larceny theft may continue to decrease but at a slower pace, potentially reaching around 14 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft rates are predicted to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 1.5 and 1.8 per 1,000 residents.
In summary, Enterprise has demonstrated a positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, with significant decreases in burglary and larceny theft rates despite population growth. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates while experiencing economic growth and increased population density is noteworthy. These trends, if sustained, could contribute to an improved quality of life for residents and potentially attract further investment and development to the area.
