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Property Crime Trends in Ennis, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ennis, Montana, a small community nestled in the southwestern part of the state, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied, with a peak of 9 incidents in 2010 and a recent count of 8 in 2022. This represents an overall decrease of 11.11% in property crimes during this period. Concurrently, the population decreased from 653 in 2010 to 621 in 2022, a reduction of 4.90%.
The burglary trend in the city shows a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries reported, which dropped to zero incidents in several subsequent years, including 2022. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.13 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The percentage of state burglaries attributed to the city fluctuated, peaking at 0.22% in 2010 and dropping to 0% in recent years. This decline suggests an improvement in home and business security within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more variability. The number of larceny-thefts ranged from a low of 1 in 2013 and 2018 to a high of 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 7.66 in 2010 to 12.88 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022. This upward trend in larceny-theft, despite a decreasing population, may indicate changing economic conditions or shifts in local law enforcement strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been sporadic. There were no reported incidents in most years, with exceptions in 2013 (1 theft), 2014 (2 thefts), and 2021 (1 theft). The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 2.77 in 2014. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts reached its highest at 0.17% in 2014. The infrequent nature of these crimes suggests they may be isolated incidents rather than a persistent problem.
Arson incidents have been consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson cases indicates a positive aspect of public safety in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $48,938 in 2013 to $61,609 in 2018, property crime incidents generally decreased. However, this trend reversed in recent years, with property crimes increasing to 8 in 2022 as median income declined to $45,275. The relationship between property crime and home ownership is less clear, with no strong correlation evident in the data.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in overall property crimes. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant type of property crime, potentially reaching 10-12 incidents annually. Burglary and motor vehicle theft may continue to occur sporadically, with 0-2 incidents per year. Arson is predicted to remain at zero, maintaining the city's positive record in this area.
In summary, Ennis has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, with the exception of a recent uptick in larceny-theft. The community's low crime rates, particularly in burglary and arson, reflect positively on its overall safety. However, the recent increase in larceny-theft warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to prevent further escalation. As the city moves forward, maintaining economic stability and community engagement will be crucial in preserving its relatively low crime environment.
