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Property Crime Trends in Enfield, NC: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Enfield, North Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly by 56.1%, from 123 to 54 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a population decrease of 20.9%, from 4,779 to 3,780 residents during the same period.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 72 burglaries, which decreased to 31 by 2021, representing a 56.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 15.1 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 8.2 per 1,000 in 2021. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2012, but then rising again to 0.12% by 2021. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the reduction was not as pronounced compared to state-wide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend, though less consistently. From 47 cases in 2010, the number increased to 74 in 2012 before declining to 22 in 2021, marking a 53.2% overall decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 9.8 in 2010 to 5.8 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2021, indicating a more significant local reduction compared to state averages.
Motor vehicle theft in the city experienced fluctuations but ultimately decreased. From 4 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 7 in 2019 before dropping to just 1 in 2021, a 75% overall reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.84 in 2010 to 0.26 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, starting at 0.04% in 2010, peaking at 0.07% in 2019, and then falling sharply to 0.01% in 2021, suggesting a more substantial local improvement compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city showed an increase over time, contrary to other property crime trends. From 1 incident in 2010, arson cases rose to 3 in 2019 and 2020, before slightly decreasing to 2 in 2021. This represents a 100% increase from 2010 to 2021. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.53 in 2021. Notably, the city's share of state arson cases rose dramatically from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2021, indicating a concerning local trend compared to state-wide figures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 3,673 per square mile in 2010 to 2,905 in 2021, overall property crime rates also declined. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the Black population percentage decreased from 87% in 2013 to 76% in 2021, and the White population increased from 11% to 19%, property crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), Enfield may see a further 30% reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially decreasing by 35% and 40% respectively. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize at very low levels. However, arson cases could potentially increase by 50% if current trends persist.
In summary, Enfield has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes, with notable decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. However, the increase in arson cases presents a concern that warrants attention. The correlation between declining crime rates and changes in population density and racial composition suggests complex socio-economic factors at play. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies, particularly for arson, will be crucial for sustaining and improving public safety.
