Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, starting at 25 in 2010, dropping to a low of 13 in 2013, and then rising to 41 in 2020. This represents a 64% increase over the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.85 to 1.51. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.29% in 2020, indicating a growing problem relative to state trends. This surge in motor vehicle thefts may warrant targeted prevention strategies.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some variability. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 6 per year, with no clear trend. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated between 0 and 0.22. The city's share of state arson cases varied widely, from 0% to 1.12%, suggesting that arson is not a consistent or major issue but can spike occasionally.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in burglaries appears to have a moderate negative correlation with the increasing median income, which rose from $37,344 in 2013 to $40,598 in 2022. This suggests that as economic conditions improved, burglary rates decreased. Additionally, there's a weak positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing (which increased from 48% in 2013 to 50% in 2022) and the reduction in overall property crime rates, potentially indicating that increased homeownership contributes to community stability and reduced crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in total property crimes. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise if current trends persist. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant property crime but with potential for further gradual decreases.

In summary, Elmira has seen a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a growing challenge. The correlations between crime rates, economic improvements, and housing stability suggest that continued focus on economic development and homeownership could contribute to further reductions in property crime. As the city moves forward, targeted strategies to address motor vehicle theft while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be crucial for enhancing overall public safety and quality of life for Elmira's residents.