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Property Crime Trends in Elmhurst, Illinois: A Decade of Improvement Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Elmhurst, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased by 22.7%, from 655 to 506 incidents (excluding 2020 due to incomplete data). During this same period, the population grew by 5.4%, from 45,647 to 48,110 residents, suggesting an overall improvement in public safety relative to population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 85 burglaries, which decreased to 61 by 2020, representing a 28.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 1.86 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.27 per 1,000 in 2020. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.30% in 2020, indicating that burglaries decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also exhibited a declining trend. In 2010, there were 545 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 391 by 2019 (2020 data unavailable), a 28.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 11.94 in 2010 to 8.03 in 2019. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.32% in 2010 to 0.28% in 2019, suggesting that the local trend aligns closely with state-level changes.
Motor vehicle theft presented a more volatile pattern. There were 25 incidents in 2010, which increased to 32 by 2020, a 28% increase. However, this trend was not linear, with fluctuations throughout the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.55 in 2010 to 0.67 in 2020. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.10% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2020, indicating a divergence from state trends.
Arson incidents in the city were relatively rare and inconsistent. The number of arsons fluctuated between 0 and 3 per year, with no clear trend. Due to the low numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents and the percentage of state arsons varied significantly year to year, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about long-term trends.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $106,980 in 2013 to $127,133 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting a possible inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime. Additionally, the slight decrease in owner-occupied housing from 82% in 2013 to 80% in 2022 coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, though the correlation is not strong enough to imply causation.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in the city may continue to decrease slightly. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 1.2 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft may further decrease to approximately 7.5 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft rates are predicted to remain volatile but average around 0.6 per 1,000 residents.
In conclusion, Elmhurst has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The city's efforts in maintaining public safety, coupled with increasing median incomes, have likely contributed to this improvement. However, the increasing share of state motor vehicle thefts suggests a need for targeted strategies in this area. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
