Motor vehicle theft saw a significant increase, from 3 cases in 2021 to 7 in 2022, a 133.33% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 0.32 to 0.80. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% to 0.01%. This substantial increase, outpacing the population decline, points to a growing problem with vehicle security in the area.

Arson cases dropped from 1 in 2021 to 0 in 2022, a 100% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.11 to 0. The city's contribution to state arson cases decreased from 0.04% to 0%. While this is a positive trend, the small number of cases makes it difficult to draw broader conclusions about long-term arson trends.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,542 per square mile in 2021 to 1,428 in 2022, overall property crime increased. This suggests that the declining population may have led to reduced community surveillance, potentially creating more opportunities for crime.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Elmendorf may see a continued increase in burglaries, potentially reaching 8-10 cases annually. Larceny-theft cases may stabilize around 10-12 per year. Motor vehicle thefts could rise to 12-15 cases annually. Arson cases are likely to remain very low, with 0-1 incidents per year.

In summary, Elmendorf is experiencing a complex shift in its property crime landscape. The significant increases in burglary and motor vehicle theft, juxtaposed with decreases in larceny-theft and arson, suggest a changing pattern of criminal activity. These trends, occurring against a backdrop of declining population density, highlight the need for targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly in areas of vehicle security and residential protection.