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Property Crime Trends in Ellisville, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ellisville, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 138 in 2010 and ending at 116 in 2022, representing a 15.9% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 10,323 to 10,861, a 5.2% increase, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between population growth and property crime rates.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 21 burglaries, which decreased to just 6 in 2022, marking a 71.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.03 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.55 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.06% in 2010 to a low of 0.04% in 2016-2018, before rising again to 0.05% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in Ellisville, has shown more volatility. From 114 incidents in 2010, it dropped to a low of 64 in 2014, then peaked at 142 in 2015, before settling at 99 in 2022. This represents a 13.2% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 11.04 in 2010 to 9.12 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts increased from 0.10% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, indicating that Ellisville's larceny theft rates may not have decreased as rapidly as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an overall increasing trend. From just 3 incidents in 2010, it rose to 11 in 2022, a 266.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.29 in 2010 to 1.01 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting that this crime type has become relatively more prevalent in Ellisville compared to the state average.
Arson cases in Ellisville have been rare, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number recorded was 1 case in 2014, 2015, and 2016, and again in 2020. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to establish meaningful trends or rates for arson in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $86,289 in 2013 to $97,173 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the increasing Asian population (from 4% in 2013 to 7% in 2022) and the slight decrease in overall property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029: Burglaries may continue to decrease, potentially reaching 3-4 incidents annually. Larceny theft is likely to stabilize around 90-100 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft might continue its upward trend, possibly reaching 18-20 incidents annually. Overall property crime rates are expected to remain relatively stable or show a slight decrease, barring any significant socioeconomic changes.
In summary, Ellisville has experienced a general decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries, while seeing an increase in motor vehicle thefts. These trends, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, suggest a gradually improving safety profile for the city. However, the increasing share of state motor vehicle thefts indicates a need for targeted prevention strategies in this area.
