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Property Crime Trends in Elkton, Maryland: A Decade of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Elkton, a town in Maryland, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade, alongside population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 28.2%, from 1,172 to 842 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 6.6%, from 22,017 to 23,471 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 240 burglaries, which decreased to 110 in 2022, representing a 54.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.9 to 4.7 incidents per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 1.9% in 2010 to 2.43% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary has decreased locally, it has done so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a decline. In 2010, there were 867 incidents, which dropped to 671 in 2022, a 22.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 39.4 to 28.6. However, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 2.47% to 3.51%, indicating that the city's improvement in this category was less pronounced than the state's overall trend.
Motor vehicle theft showed a different pattern. While there was a slight decrease from 65 incidents in 2010 to 61 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents only marginally decreased from 3.0 to 2.6. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 1.05% to 1.51%, suggesting that this type of crime has become relatively more concentrated in the area compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. From 12 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 2 in 2022, an 83.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.54 to 0.09. The city's share of state arson cases decreased from 2.61% to 1.63%, indicating a more significant improvement in this area compared to the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $58,911 in 2013 to $68,056 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the slight decrease in homeownership rates from 56% in 2013 to 53% in 2022 coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, though this correlation appears weaker.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly increase. Arson incidents are predicted to remain low but may fluctuate due to their relatively rare occurrence.
In summary, Elkton has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the town's share of state crime in some categories has increased, indicating that while improvements have been made, they may not have kept pace with statewide reductions. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction efforts in the coming years.
