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Property Crime Trends in Elizabethtown: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Elizabethtown, a town in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased by 45.5%, from 242 to 132 incidents. This significant reduction occurred alongside a slight population decline of 10.5%, from 6,753 in 2011 to 6,043 in 2021.
Burglary trends in the city show a substantial decrease over time. In 2011, there were 42 burglaries reported, which dropped to 28 by 2021, marking a 33.3% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.22 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 4.63 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.08% in 2011 to 0.11% in 2021, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average. This trend indicates an improvement in local property security, though there's still room for enhancement relative to state-wide progress.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a significant decline. In 2011, there were 193 reported cases, which decreased to 100 by 2021, representing a 48.2% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 28.58 in 2011 to 16.55 in 2021. Despite this decrease, the city's proportion of state larceny-thefts decreased only slightly from 0.14% to 0.09%, indicating that the local reduction was somewhat in line with state-wide trends. This suggests effective local strategies in combating petty theft, though maintaining vigilance remains crucial.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a notable decrease. In 2011, there were 7 reported cases, which reduced to 4 by 2021, marking a 42.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.04 in 2011 to 0.66 in 2021. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.07% to 0.03%, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average. This trend suggests improved vehicle security measures or enhanced law enforcement efforts in this area.
Arson cases in the city have been consistently low. In 2011, there was 1 reported case, which decreased to 0 by 2021. The arson rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.15 in 2011 to 0 in 2021. The city's share of state arsons also fell from 0.11% to 0%, indicating a complete elimination of this crime type in recent years. This trend suggests effective fire prevention and investigation measures in the community.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,332 per square mile in 2011 to 1,192 in 2021, there was a corresponding decrease in property crimes. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between property crime rates and homeownership. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 54% in 2013 to 62% in 2021, property crime rates decreased, suggesting that higher homeownership may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Elizabethtown may see a further reduction in property crimes by approximately 20-25% if current trends continue. This would bring the total number of property crimes to around 100-105 annually.
In summary, Elizabethtown has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most notable improvements have been in larceny-theft and burglary reductions, while maintaining very low rates of motor vehicle theft and effectively eliminating arson. These positive trends, coupled with increasing homeownership and stable population density, suggest a community that is becoming safer and more secure. However, continued efforts in crime prevention and community engagement will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
