Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Elizabeth, NJ: Significant Improvements Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Elizabeth, New Jersey, a densely populated urban area of 12.39 square miles, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 27.7%, from 4,734 to 3,421 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 7.2%, from 125,222 to 134,274 residents, indicating a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 924 burglaries, which decreased to 300 in 2022, representing a 67.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.38 in 2010 to 2.23 in 2022, a 69.8% decrease. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 5.35% in 2010 to 6.29% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary rates, it did so at a slower pace than the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased, though less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, there were 2,665 larceny-thefts, which dropped to 2,426 in 2022, a 9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 21.28 in 2010 to 18.07 in 2022, a 15.1% reduction. The city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 5.63% to 6.7% over this period, indicating that the city's improvement in this category lagged behind the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a significant improvement. In 2010, there were 1,145 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to 695 in 2022, a 39.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.14 in 2010 to 5.18 in 2022, a 43.3% decrease. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased only slightly from 11.56% to 10.62%, suggesting that while improvements were made, they were roughly in line with state-wide trends.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 12 arson cases, which decreased to 5 in 2022, a 58.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.096 in 2010 to 0.037 in 2022, a 61.5% decrease. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 2.65% to 3.45%, indicating that despite improvements, the city's arson rate decreased at a slower pace than the state average.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and median income. As the median income increased from $42,386 in 2013 to $64,113 in 2022, a 51.3% increase, the total property crime rate decreased by 26.5% during the same period. This suggests that rising incomes may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further 15-20% reduction in overall property crime rates if current economic and demographic trends continue. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are projected to decrease at a faster rate than larceny-theft, while arson cases are expected to remain low but volatile.
In conclusion, Elizabeth has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most substantial improvements were seen in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety. While the city's share of state crime rates has increased in some categories, the overall trend shows a safer community with promising prospects for continued improvement in the coming years.
