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Property Crime Trends in Elizabeth, Colorado: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Elizabeth, Colorado, a small city of 2.16 square miles, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 65%, from 40 to 14 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 9.5%, from 5,398 to 5,912 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries reported, which decreased to zero by 2022. This represents a 100% reduction in burglary incidents. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.85 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics also diminished, falling from 0.05% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This dramatic decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a significant reduction. In 2010, there were 28 reported incidents, which decreased to 11 by 2022, marking a 60.7% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people fell from 5.19 in 2010 to 1.86 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.04% to 0.01% over this period. This decline in larceny-theft rates, despite population growth, indicates improved community vigilance or enhanced preventive measures.
Motor vehicle theft trends have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 2 reported incidents, which dropped to zero in several years but increased to 3 in 2022. This represents a 50% increase from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose slightly from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.51 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained relatively low, increasing from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. While the overall numbers are small, the recent uptick warrants attention to prevent further increases.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city. Only one case was reported in 2015, representing 0.16% of state arson cases that year. In all other years, including 2022, no arson cases were reported. This indicates that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $86,502 in 2013 to $104,963 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied homes rose from 85% in 2013 to 92% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decline in property crimes. This suggests that higher income levels and increased home ownership may contribute to lower property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it is projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in the city will likely continue to decrease, albeit at a slower rate. The total number of property crimes could potentially drop to around 10-12 incidents per year, with larceny-theft remaining the most common type of property crime.
In summary, Elizabeth has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and increased home ownership, suggest a generally improving quality of life and safety in the community. However, the recent uptick in motor vehicle thefts highlights the need for continued vigilance and targeted prevention strategies to maintain and further improve the city's safety record.
