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Property Crime Trends in Elizabeth City: Historic Port Sees Decline Despite Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Elizabeth City, North Carolina, a historic port city located in the northeastern part of the state, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 772 to 528, representing a 31.6% reduction. During this same period, the city's population grew from 28,386 to 30,340, an increase of 6.9%. This contrast between decreasing crime rates and increasing population presents an intriguing dynamic for analysis.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 208 burglaries reported, which decreased to 151 by 2022, marking a 27.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.33 in 2010 to 4.98 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in raw numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.62% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the rate of improvement has been slower compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 544 in 2010 to 333 in 2022, a 38.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 19.16 to 10.98 over this period. However, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.42% to 0.28%, indicating that the city's improvement outpaced the state average in this category.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but ultimately increased over the examined period. In 2010, there were 20 reported cases, which rose to 44 in 2022, a 120% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.70 to 1.45. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose from 0.19% to 0.30%, suggesting this crime category has become a growing concern relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but variable. In 2010, there were 3 reported cases, which decreased to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents declined slightly from 0.11 to 0.07. The city's percentage of state arson cases decreased from 0.29% to 0.23%, indicating that arson has become less prevalent in the city compared to state averages.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 2,424 per square mile in 2010 to 2,591 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization has not led to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, there appears to be a weak inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $52,579 in 2013 to $53,407 in 2022, property crime rates tended to decrease, though this relationship is not consistently strong across all years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Based on current trends, burglaries and larceny-theft are projected to continue their downward trajectory, potentially reaching around 130 and 300 incidents respectively by 2029. Motor vehicle theft, however, may continue to rise, potentially reaching 50-55 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low but variable, likely between 1-3 cases per year.
In summary, Elizabeth City has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite population growth. The city's progress in these areas has outpaced state averages, indicating effective local crime prevention strategies. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a new challenge that may require targeted interventions. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates, coupled with the slight positive correlation between rising incomes and decreasing crime, suggests that urban development and economic growth in the city may be contributing to improved safety outcomes.
