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Property Crime Trends in El Centro: A Decade of Improvement Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
El Centro, located in California, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside fluctuations in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 61.8%, from 2,408 to 919 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 6.1%, from 45,456 to 48,226 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 672 burglary incidents, which decreased to 160 in 2022, representing a 76.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 14.8 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.3 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased, from 0.36% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 1,546 larceny theft incidents, which fell to 641 in 2022, a 58.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 34.0 in 2010 to 13.3 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts dropped from 0.30% to 0.13% during this period. This trend indicates a significant improvement in preventing petty theft and shoplifting incidents.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a more modest decline. In 2010, there were 190 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to 118 in 2022, a 37.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 4.2 in 2010 to 2.4 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.15% to 0.08%. This suggests that while improvements have been made, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increase. In 2010, there were 13 arson incidents, which rose to 25 in 2022, a 92.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022. Notably, the city's contribution to state arson cases rose significantly from 0.21% to 0.40%. This concerning trend may require focused attention from law enforcement and community prevention efforts.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong inverse correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 81% in 2013 to 88% in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $52,445 in 2013 to $55,649 in 2022, property crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes, with the exception of arson. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to decrease further, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize. Arson cases, however, are projected to continue their upward trend if current patterns persist.
In summary, El Centro has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the rising trend in arson cases and the persistent nature of motor vehicle thefts highlight areas requiring continued attention. The correlations between demographic changes and crime rates suggest that community engagement and economic factors play crucial roles in shaping the city's safety landscape.
