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Property Crime Trends in Eaton, Ohio: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Eaton, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced significant fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable overall decrease of 62.5% from 315 incidents in 2010 to 118 in 2022. This reduction occurred against a backdrop of relatively stable population, which saw a slight decrease of 1.4% from 10,185 in 2010 to 10,043 in 2022.
The burglary rate in the city has shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 55 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 2 cases in 2022, representing a 96.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.4 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.2 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also dropped significantly, from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the city.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also witnessed a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 253 in 2010 to 103 in 2022, a 59.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 24.8 in 2010 to 10.3 in 2022. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022. This trend indicates that while larceny-theft has decreased in the city, it has done so at a rate similar to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown more variability. There were 7 incidents in 2010, which increased to 13 in 2022, an 85.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.69 in 2010 to 1.29 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting that this crime type has become relatively more prevalent in the city compared to the state average.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: 1 case each in 2020 and 2021. This sparse data makes it difficult to establish a clear trend. However, it's worth noting that when arson did occur, it represented a significant portion of state arson cases (0.15% in 2020 and 0.13% in 2021), despite the city's small size.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income in the city increased from $41,408 in 2013 to $56,353 in 2022 (a 36.1% increase), there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 63% in 2016 to 72% in 2022, which coincided with the continued decrease in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Burglaries are expected to remain at very low levels, possibly reaching near-zero incidents. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its downward trend, potentially dropping below 80 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft, however, may see a slight increase, possibly reaching up to 18-20 incidents annually. Arson is expected to remain rare, with sporadic occurrences.
In summary, Eaton has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend correlates with rising median incomes and increased home ownership rates, suggesting that improved economic conditions and community stability may be contributing factors. While motor vehicle theft has seen a slight increase, it remains relatively low. The city's proactive approach to reducing property crimes, coupled with favorable socioeconomic trends, positions it well for continued improvement in public safety in the coming years.
