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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
East Lynne, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2011 to 2021, the city experienced fluctuations in both property crime incidents and population. The total number of property crimes varied from year to year, with a peak of 4 incidents in 2017 and several years reporting zero incidents. Meanwhile, the population grew from 1,196 in 2011 to 1,335 in 2021, an increase of 11.6% over the decade.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. The highest number of burglaries occurred in 2017 with 3 incidents, representing 0.01% of the state's total burglaries that year. This translates to a rate of 3 burglaries per 1,000 residents. In contrast, most other years saw either zero or one burglary incident. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, ranging from 0 to 3 over the period. This suggests that while burglary is not a persistent problem, it can spike occasionally, potentially impacting residents' sense of security.
Larceny-theft in the city has been relatively rare, with only one reported incident in 2016 and another in 2020. These isolated incidents resulted in rates of 0.95 and 0.78 thefts per 1,000 residents respectively. The percentage of state larceny-theft remained at 0% for all reported years, indicating that these crimes in East Lynne have a negligible impact on state-wide statistics. The low occurrence of larceny-theft suggests that petty theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Motor vehicle theft showed a pattern similar to larceny-theft, with single incidents reported in 2016, 2017, and 2020. These incidents represented 0.01% of the state's motor vehicle thefts in each of those years. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.95 in 2016, 1.0 in 2017, and 0.78 in 2020. While infrequent, these incidents highlight the need for continued vigilance in vehicle security, especially given the city's small size where even a single theft can significantly impact the crime rate.
Arson in East Lynne is extremely rare, with only one incident reported in 2016. This single event accounted for 0.12% of the state's arsons that year, translating to a rate of 0.95 arsons per 1,000 residents. The absence of arson incidents in other years suggests this was an isolated event rather than a recurring problem.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The years with reported property crimes (2016, 2017, and 2020) coincide with periods of relatively stable or slightly declining population density. For instance, the population density decreased from 3,448 per square mile in 2015 to 3,221 in 2016 when multiple property crimes were reported. This could suggest that fluctuations in population density might have some influence on property crime rates, though the relationship is not consistently strong across all years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the low and sporadic nature of property crimes in East Lynne. Based on historical patterns, we might expect to see between 0 to 2 property crime incidents per year, with the possibility of an occasional spike to 3 or 4 incidents in a single year. However, given the small population and infrequent nature of these crimes, predictions should be interpreted cautiously.
In summary, East Lynne demonstrates a pattern of infrequent and low-level property crime activity. The most notable discoveries include the sporadic nature of burglaries, the rarity of larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, and the near-absence of arson. These trends, combined with the city's growing population, suggest that East Lynne maintains a relatively safe environment with regard to property crimes. However, the occasional spikes in incidents highlight the importance of ongoing community vigilance and law enforcement efforts to maintain this generally low crime profile.