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Property Crime Trends in East Dubuque: River City's Shifting Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
East Dubuque, Illinois, a small city with a population of 3,633 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes varied significantly, starting at 32 in 2010 and ending at 38 in 2019, representing an overall increase of 18.75%. During this same period, the population decreased by 5.05%, from 3,904 in 2010 to 3,707 in 2019.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 4 reported burglaries, which remained stable until 2015 when it spiked to 12 cases. This spike represented a 200% increase from the previous year and coincided with the highest burglary percentage of state crime at 0.04%. However, by 2019, burglaries had decreased to 7 cases, still higher than the 2010 baseline. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.02 in 2010 to 1.89 in 2019, indicating a growing concern despite the overall population decline.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited fluctuating patterns. In 2010, there were 25 reported cases, which dropped to a low of 10 cases in 2017 before rising again to 24 cases in 2019. This represents a slight decrease of 4% over the decade. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 6.40 in 2010 to 6.47 in 2019, due to the declining population. The percentage of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable at 0.01% throughout most of the period, increasing to 0.02% in 2019.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed a concerning increase. From 3 cases in 2010, it rose to 7 cases in 2019, representing a 133.33% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents more than doubled from 0.77 in 2010 to 1.89 in 2019. Notably, the percentage of state motor vehicle theft jumped from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2019, indicating that this crime type grew faster in the city compared to the state average.
Arson cases were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2019, suggesting either an absence of this crime type or potential underreporting.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. For instance, when the median income peaked at $69,789 in 2017, property crime was at one of its lowest points with 19 total cases. Conversely, when income dropped to $56,213 in 2019, property crime spiked to 38 cases. This suggests that economic factors may play a role in property crime trends within the city.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, total property crimes could potentially increase to around 45-50 cases annually if current trends continue. This forecast takes into account the slight upward trend in property crimes observed in recent years, coupled with the ongoing population decline.
In summary, East Dubuque has experienced a complex property crime landscape over the past decade. While some crime types like larceny-theft have remained relatively stable when adjusted for population, others like motor vehicle theft have shown concerning increases. The inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates underscores the potential impact of economic factors on criminal activity in the city. As the community looks toward the future, addressing these trends and their underlying causes will be crucial for maintaining public safety and quality of life for residents.
