Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen an increase over the years. In 2010, there were 718 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 870 in 2022, a 21.2% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 3.1 in 2010 to 3.0 in 2022, a 4.9% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 6.81% in 2010 to 5.98% in 2022, suggesting that while the absolute number of thefts increased, the city's relative contribution to state totals decreased.

Arson cases in Durham have fluctuated but show an overall increase. In 2010, there were 28 arson cases, which increased to 40 in 2022, a 42.9% rise. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.12 in 2010 to 0.14 in 2022, a 12.1% increase. The city's proportion of state arson cases rose from 2.75% in 2010 to 4.55% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in Durham relative to the state average.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As population density increased from 1,985 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,529 in 2022, overall property crime rates per capita decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be a negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $50,522 in 2013 to $78,105 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in property crime rates per capita. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching as low as 3.5 per 1,000 residents by 2029. Larceny-theft rates may stabilize around 23 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft rates are projected to remain relatively stable, while arson cases may continue to fluctuate but remain a small portion of overall property crimes.

In summary, Durham has experienced a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to its growing population. The significant decrease in burglaries, coupled with the relatively stable larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft rates when adjusted for population growth, indicates a generally positive trend in the city's safety. However, the increase in arson cases warrants attention. The correlations between rising median income, increasing population density, and declining crime rates suggest that Durham's economic growth and urban development may be contributing factors to the improved safety landscape. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and targeted crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime rates.